Canada in the Post American World

The Post American World is a new book by Fareed Zakaria, the editor of Newsweek International and one of America's leading foreign policy wonks. In it, he argues an interesting case. To boil the entire volume down to its simplest premise, Mr. Zakaria suggests that in the wake of the economic and political rise of India, China and the EU, the relative power of the United States has declined.

Wary of being associated with those writers who are predicting the complete end of US primacy, he is careful to state that the United States remains the global leader in terms of military and economic power. However. the thrust of his argument is that the uni-polar moment, which may have lasted a decade, where the United States was the sole leader of the world and the only undisputed superpower is over.

The new global system is not a return to a bi-polar system, such as the previous period, which was dominated by clashes between the US and the old Soviet Union, but is rather a multi-polar system, with a growing number of regional powers competing in a complex and interdependent way. In other words, a system of great powers perhaps more reminiscent of the early twentieth century or other periods in international relations.

This new system is characterized by a new, more influential role for India, as well as increased influence of nations such as Russia and China, and the collective role of the European Union. Moreover, there are other countries powers that Mr. Zakaria cites, such as the Persian Gulf emirates and Brazil that are also fighting to have a seat at the table. Such a list would of course include Canada, which is a member of the G8 and NATO, and a major western economic force.

However, in this book, Canada only gets a fleeting mention, and a total of two references. The first reference was a now predictable comment about the Canadian health care system, which has in some cases encouraged US automakers to keep plants open in the province of Ontario. In light of recent changes to the automotive industry in Canada, one might dispute this notion, but it's a minor assertion and not a central argument. The other section that referred to Canada was shorter, but more interesting. On page 29, Mr. Zakaria states the following: "Not all resource-rich countries are rogues, and the climate of good economic management has led some to use their riches more wisely than before. Canada is becoming a major power, and yet acting extremely responsibly."

That last bit is quite compelling. For most of Canada's existence, the national foreign policy has been determined relative to two big powers: first the United Kingdom and then the United States. In fact, arguably the largest crisis in Canadian foreign policy came during the Suez Crisis when the UK and the USA were on the opposite sides that confrontation. Canada was highly motivated to solve that conflagration, and in fact Lester Pearson ended up with a Nobel Peace Prize for handling the matter well, which laid the groundwork for his later Prime Ministership.

Fast forward to today, and some interesting things have happened. In 2003, when both the UK and the USA embarked on Operation Iraqi Freedom, Canada chose not to participate. Recently, when Canada demanded more NATO troops to assist with the mission in Afghanistan, NATO obliged. At the same time urgings by the US to expand NATO to include Georgia were not agreed to.

It may be too early to say for certain, but there is growing evidence that Canada's relative power is growing in the midst of the changes currently happening in the international system. As Canada moves from what Lester Pearson referred to as a "helpful fixer" to a role more suited to a great power, there are a number of things that will change.

First of all, Canada will need to change the focus of her foreign policy. With greater influence will come greater responsibility and a need to determine what new challenges and what new leadership roles are appropriate in that context. Foreign policy goals will need to be debated and domestic policy goals may shift. Although Canada has always been considered a responsible member of the international community and a solid ally of the United States, as her influence increases, these relationships with necessarily change. Since foreign policy is the perview of the federal government, the relationship between Ottawa and the provinces in this regard will need to be re-examined as well. In short, there will be major implications for Canadian diplomacy, the foreign service, the Canadian military, and trade.

The challenges will be many, but the payoff significant. It may be that during this next century Canadians will finally assume their mantel as global leaders, a role that years as a middle power may have laid solid groundwork for.

Mark Weller

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